Company Coverage
EVE Energy (300014 CH): 3Q26: Earnings Up 60% yoy/4.5% qoq, Missing Estimates; Cut Target Price To Rmb57.00
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Previous TP :
Rmb47.21
Rmb57.00
20.7%
Rmb85.00
Analyst
Highlights
- 3Q26 net profit missed our estimate at Rmb1,939m (+60.2% yoy/+4.5% qoq), due to subsidy cuts, tax hikes, and R&D costs.
- Forward revenue will be driven by a strong orderbook, but tax hikes will cap margins, and the inventory build-up amid a slump in lithium carbonate prices will probably lead to inventory provisions.
- We cut our 2026-28 net profit forecasts by 7%/17%/6% to Rmb7.04b/Rmb8.24b/Rmb10.93b respectively.
- Maintain BUY and cut target price from Rmb85.00 to Rmb57.00 (15x 2027F PE).
Analysis
- 3Q26 net profit missed expectations at Rmb1,939m (+60.2% yoy/+4.5% qoq), above the mid-point of the guided range of Rmb1,767m-2,049m, but below our estimate of Rmb2.1b and consensus estimate of Rmb2.0b. The earnings miss stemmed from lower subsidies, higher taxes, and inventory provision, which more than offset the shipment beat.
- Lithium-ion battery (LIB) battery shipment grew 63% yoy and 17.5% qoq to 53.5 GWh, beating estimates, with the beat on EV battery shipment (30.4 GWh/+132% yoy/+32% qoq) more than offsetting the miss on energy storage system (ESS) battery shipment (23.1 GWh/+17.1% yoy/-4.2% qoq).
Highlights
- 3Q26 net profit missed our estimate at Rmb1,939m (+60.2% yoy/+4.5% qoq), due to subsidy cuts, tax hikes, and R&D costs.
- Forward revenue will be driven by a strong orderbook, but tax hikes will cap margins, and the inventory build-up amid a slump in lithium carbonate prices will probably lead to inventory provisions.
- We cut our 2026-28 net profit forecasts by 7%/17%/6% to Rmb7.04b/Rmb8.24b/Rmb10.93b respectively.
- Maintain BUY and cut target price from Rmb85.00 to Rmb57.00 (15x 2027F PE).
Analysis
- 3Q26 net profit missed expectations at Rmb1,939m (+60.2% yoy/+4.5% qoq), above the mid-point of the guided range of Rmb1,767m-2,049m, but below our estimate of Rmb2.1b and consensus estimate of Rmb2.0b. The earnings miss stemmed from lower subsidies, higher taxes, and inventory provision, which more than offset the shipment beat.
- Lithium-ion battery (LIB) battery shipment grew 63% yoy and 17.5% qoq to 53.5 GWh, beating estimates, with the beat on EV battery shipment (30.4 GWh/+132% yoy/+32% qoq) more than offsetting the miss on energy storage system (ESS) battery shipment (23.1 GWh/+17.1% yoy/-4.2% qoq).
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Previous TP :
Rmb47.21
Rmb57.00
20.7%
Rmb85.00
Analyst
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This report is provided subject to, and must be read together with, the full Disclosures / Disclaimers available at this link, which are incorporated by reference into this report. In particular, this report is intended for general circulation and informational purposes only and does not constitute personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment product or security. You should independently evaluate the information and, where necessary, seek advice from a qualified financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment. Analyst certifications required under applicable regulations, including SEC Regulation AC (where relevant), are included in this report. By accessing, receiving or using this report, you acknowledge that you have read, understood and agreed to be bound by the Disclosures / Disclaimers, as may be amended, supplemented or updated from time to time.
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