Highlights

• We expect solid travel demand during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, supported by the extended travel window driving longer stays, extended travel distances and stronger outbound demand. Booking data from TCOM and TT point to resilient long-haul and international travel, although overall passenger growth remains moderate. We expect OTA companies’ growth to be supported by international business expansion and AI-enhanced operating efficiency, partly offset by softer domestic travel demand and regulatory adjustments.
   
• Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUY: Trip.com

Analysis

• Traveller traffic points to solid travel momentum during the Mid Autumn and upcoming National Day holidays. According to the Ministry of Transport, total cross-regional passenger traffic is expected to reach around 2.78b trips across the two holidays. During the three-day Mid-Autumn Festival, passenger traffic is forecast at around 650m trips, or 220m per day, around 20% above normal daily levels, while the seven-day National Day holiday is expected to see around 2.13b trips, or 300m per day, as travel demand remains elevated. Passenger traffic is expected to peak at around 340m trips on 1 October. Separately, China State Railway expects 284m railway passenger trips during the 16-day holiday transport period from 23 September-8 October, with 96.21m tickets already sold as of 23 September, reflecting robust travel demand ahead of the holidays.
   
• TCOM: Prolonged holiday window supports extended outbound travel. According to Trip.com Group’s (TCOM) released “Golden Week 2026 travel trends” on 20 September, around one in 10 travellers combined the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holidays into an extended break, and nearly half of these travellers planned trips of more than eight days. More than half of outbound flight bookings are scheduled to depart before the official National Day holiday begins on 1 October, with average outbound trip duration exceeding nine days. Bookings for hotel stays of seven nights or longer surged 123% yoy, while long-haul flight bookings to gateway cities in Europe, Australia and the US recorded double-digit yoy growth. The extended holiday window is therefore supporting longer-duration and long haul outbound travel, rather than merely increasing overall trip frequency.
   
• Longer holidays are also driving multi-destination and diversified outbound travel. According to TCOM, bookings for multi-destination itineraries jumped 84% yoy, with Southeast Asia and Europe among the most popular regions for multi-stop journeys, including Singapore-Bali, Hong Kong-Sydney and Amsterdam-Milan. Island and leisure destinations in Asia also saw strong demand, with flight bookings by Chinese travellers to Cebu and Phuket rising 111% and 78% yoy, respectively, while Jeju and Bali ranked among the top outbound destinations. Among younger travellers, New Zealand also gained traction, with flight bookings to Queenstown and Auckland rising 314% and 276% yoy, respectively, reflecting a broader shift towards longer-distance and more diversified travel itineraries.