Periodic/Sector reports
China Property: NBS: New-home Sales Decline Deepens To 22.6% yoy In Sep 26; Second-Hand Market Continues To Outperform
UNDERWEIGHT (Maintained)
Analyst
Analyst
Highlights
- NBS data for Sep 26 showed the new-home market weakening further, with GFA sold down 22.6% yoy (Aug 26: -15.4%). In 9M26, second-hand transaction GFA rose 10.7% yoy to 1.3x residential new-home GFA sold. Household medium- to long-term loans rose Rmb87.4b in Sep 26, down 65% yoy.
- High frequency data for 1-18 Oct 26 showed Tier 1 cities still leading, though weaker than during Golden Week: New-home sales rose 8% yoy in four Tier 1 cities and fell 20% in nine Tier 2 cities, while second-hand sales rose 30% yoy in three Tier 1 cities and fell 3% in eight Tier 2 cities. ICE listing prices fell 0.6% mom.
- Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Our top picks are COLI and CR Mixc.
Analysis
- Sep 26 NBS data: The new-home sales decline deepened, and completions fell further. New-home GFA sold fell 22.6% yoy in Sep 26 (Aug 26: -15.4%) and sales value fell 21.1% yoy (Aug 26: -12.8%). Property investment fell 27.2% yoy (Aug 26: -26.1%) and completions fell 36.7% yoy (Aug 26: -28.5%), while the decline in new starts narrowed to 26.1% yoy from 30.5%. In 9M26, second-hand home transaction GFA rose 10.7% yoy to 617.5m sqm, 1.3x the 470.0m sqm of residential new-home GFA sold.
Highlights
- NBS data for Sep 26 showed the new-home market weakening further, with GFA sold down 22.6% yoy (Aug 26: -15.4%). In 9M26, second-hand transaction GFA rose 10.7% yoy to 1.3x residential new-home GFA sold. Household medium- to long-term loans rose Rmb87.4b in Sep 26, down 65% yoy.
- High frequency data for 1-18 Oct 26 showed Tier 1 cities still leading, though weaker than during Golden Week: New-home sales rose 8% yoy in four Tier 1 cities and fell 20% in nine Tier 2 cities, while second-hand sales rose 30% yoy in three Tier 1 cities and fell 3% in eight Tier 2 cities. ICE listing prices fell 0.6% mom.
- Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Our top picks are COLI and CR Mixc.
Analysis
- Sep 26 NBS data: The new-home sales decline deepened, and completions fell further. New-home GFA sold fell 22.6% yoy in Sep 26 (Aug 26: -15.4%) and sales value fell 21.1% yoy (Aug 26: -12.8%). Property investment fell 27.2% yoy (Aug 26: -26.1%) and completions fell 36.7% yoy (Aug 26: -28.5%), while the decline in new starts narrowed to 26.1% yoy from 30.5%. In 9M26, second-hand home transaction GFA rose 10.7% yoy to 617.5m sqm, 1.3x the 470.0m sqm of residential new-home GFA sold.
UNDERWEIGHT (Maintained)
Analyst
Analyst
IMPORTANT NOTICE - DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS
This report is provided subject to, and must be read together with, the full Disclosures / Disclaimers available at this link, which are incorporated by reference into this report. In particular, this report is intended for general circulation and informational purposes only and does not constitute personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment product or security. You should independently evaluate the information and, where necessary, seek advice from a qualified financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment. Analyst certifications required under applicable regulations, including SEC Regulation AC (where relevant), are included in this report. By accessing, receiving or using this report, you acknowledge that you have read, understood and agreed to be bound by the Disclosures / Disclaimers, as may be amended, supplemented or updated from time to time.
Related articles
13 Oct 2026
China Property: Second-hand Sales Outperform New-Home Sales In Sep 26; Tier 1 Cities Property Transactions Rebound In Oct 26
23 Sept 2026
China Property: NBS Publishes Inaugural Second-Hand Transactions Data; Household Mortgage Borrowing Is Still Shrinking
15 Sept 2026
China Property: New Home Sales Accelerate In Tier 1 Cities In Early-Sep 26 But Weaken In Lower-tier Cities
Our latest research
16 Oct 2026
China Healthcare - Bi-Weekly: Profit-taking Drags HSHCI; ESMO Data Brightens Biopharma Outlook
15 Oct 2026
Automobile: China Auto Sector Weekly
13 Oct 2026