Company Coverage
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB): Clear Improving Trend In 3Q26 Earnings Outlook
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Bt19.90
Bt27.00
+35.7%
Analyst
Analyst
Nonpawit Vathanadachakul
Highlights
- The tone at the meeting was positive, as management updated us on the robust performance in Jul 26, supported by growth from all segments.
- Thai patient revenue growth in Jul 26 was outstanding, supported by the epidemic and the active launch of promotions and packages from BDMS.
- We are optimistic about BDMS’ earnings outlook in 3Q26 from the returning of Middle East patients, the continuous promotions, and the rise in cases from the epidemic. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt27.00.
Analysis
- Positive tone from the analyst meeting. We attended Bangkok Dusit Medical Services’ (BDMS) analyst meeting to review its 2Q26 results and
the tone was positive.
- Strong earnings outlook in 3Q26. We started to see a more promising sign of 3Q26 outlook improvement in Jul 26. Thai patient revenue grew by
a massive 9% yoy, while foreign patients’ revenue rose 6% yoy. Total revenue jumped 8% yoy, making it the strongest month so far for BDMS in
2026. The key driver for the strong Thai patient growth is the epidemic, as we saw the number of influenza cases accelerate in Jul 26. For foreign patient revenue, the strongest contributor is Bangladesh patients, who rebounded strongly after the visa bottleneck was resolved in late-2Q26. Revenue from Middle East patients also showed a mom recovery in Jul 26.We expect the high base from Cambodia patient revenue to normalise in 3Q26 as well. If we exclude Cambodia and Middle East patient revenue, foreign patient revenue in Jul 26 would have shown a strong growth of 14% yoy.
- 2026 guidance maintained. Management confirmed that it will maintain the growth guidance for 2026 despite the robust Jul 26 performance. We
see that this target takes into account a possible reignition of the conflict in the Middle East. BDMS targets revenue growth of 2–4% yoy, supported by expected growth of 5–7% yoy in foreign patients and 1–3% yoy in Thai patients. Key foreign markets are expected to remain largely unchanged from last year, led by Myanmar and the US. BDMS remains cautious on domestic demand amid the weak economy and plans to preserve its EBITDA margin of around 24% through tighter cost control, including procurement bundling and greater use of in-house supplies.
Highlights
- The tone at the meeting was positive, as management updated us on the robust performance in Jul 26, supported by growth from all segments.
- Thai patient revenue growth in Jul 26 was outstanding, supported by the epidemic and the active launch of promotions and packages from BDMS.
- We are optimistic about BDMS’ earnings outlook in 3Q26 from the returning of Middle East patients, the continuous promotions, and the rise in cases from the epidemic. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt27.00.
Analysis
- Positive tone from the analyst meeting. We attended Bangkok Dusit Medical Services’ (BDMS) analyst meeting to review its 2Q26 results and
the tone was positive.
- Strong earnings outlook in 3Q26. We started to see a more promising sign of 3Q26 outlook improvement in Jul 26. Thai patient revenue grew by
a massive 9% yoy, while foreign patients’ revenue rose 6% yoy. Total revenue jumped 8% yoy, making it the strongest month so far for BDMS in
2026. The key driver for the strong Thai patient growth is the epidemic, as we saw the number of influenza cases accelerate in Jul 26. For foreign patient revenue, the strongest contributor is Bangladesh patients, who rebounded strongly after the visa bottleneck was resolved in late-2Q26. Revenue from Middle East patients also showed a mom recovery in Jul 26.We expect the high base from Cambodia patient revenue to normalise in 3Q26 as well. If we exclude Cambodia and Middle East patient revenue, foreign patient revenue in Jul 26 would have shown a strong growth of 14% yoy.
- 2026 guidance maintained. Management confirmed that it will maintain the growth guidance for 2026 despite the robust Jul 26 performance. We
see that this target takes into account a possible reignition of the conflict in the Middle East. BDMS targets revenue growth of 2–4% yoy, supported by expected growth of 5–7% yoy in foreign patients and 1–3% yoy in Thai patients. Key foreign markets are expected to remain largely unchanged from last year, led by Myanmar and the US. BDMS remains cautious on domestic demand amid the weak economy and plans to preserve its EBITDA margin of around 24% through tighter cost control, including procurement bundling and greater use of in-house supplies.
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Bt19.90
Bt27.00
+35.7%
Analyst
Analyst
Nonpawit Vathanadachakul
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