Company Coverage
China Resources Beer (291 HK): 1H26: Earnings Miss; Softer Expectations For Volume And ASP In 2026
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Previous TP :
HK$21.06
HK$28.60
35.8%
HK$30.30
Analyst
Analyst
Highlights
- CR Beer’s 1H26 earnings missed expectations.
- Beer revenue increased 2% yoy, driven by 2% volume growth and a 0.5%
ASP expansion. For the full year, we have adopted a softer outlook, with
volume expected to be roughly flat and ASP to show only a slight increase,
supported by an easier comparison base in 2H25. Baijiu segment remains in
adjustment. Goodwill now stands at over Rmb4b, with potential further
impairment in 2H26.
On shareholder returns, management has guided for full-year payout ratio to
remain above 55% and is aiming to maintain a yoy flat DPS. In the mid- to
long term, it targets a payout ratio of 60%, potentially moving toward 70%.
Maintain BUY; cut target price by 6% to HK$28.60.
Analysis
1H26 earnings missed. China Resources Beer (CR Beer) reported 1H26
revenue of Rmb24,240m (+1% yoy), largely in line with consensus. Gross
profit margin (GPM) was 47.7% (-1.2ppt yoy), with beer gross margin down
1.0ppt to 47.3%, mainly due to rising material costs, and baijiu gross margin
down 4.9ppt to 62.5%. Adjusted EBITDA (excluding Shenzhen
headquarters-related income) reached Rmb7,997m (-1% yoy), with an
adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.0% (-0.8ppt yoy). Reported net profit was
Rmb5,169m (-11% yoy). Per our estimates, adjusted net profit was
Rmb5,109m (-1% yoy), 3% below consensus, with an adjusted net margin
of 21.1% (-0.5ppt yoy).
Highlights
- CR Beer’s 1H26 earnings missed expectations.
- Beer revenue increased 2% yoy, driven by 2% volume growth and a 0.5%
ASP expansion. For the full year, we have adopted a softer outlook, with
volume expected to be roughly flat and ASP to show only a slight increase,
supported by an easier comparison base in 2H25. Baijiu segment remains in
adjustment. Goodwill now stands at over Rmb4b, with potential further
impairment in 2H26.
On shareholder returns, management has guided for full-year payout ratio to
remain above 55% and is aiming to maintain a yoy flat DPS. In the mid- to
long term, it targets a payout ratio of 60%, potentially moving toward 70%.
Maintain BUY; cut target price by 6% to HK$28.60.
Analysis
1H26 earnings missed. China Resources Beer (CR Beer) reported 1H26
revenue of Rmb24,240m (+1% yoy), largely in line with consensus. Gross
profit margin (GPM) was 47.7% (-1.2ppt yoy), with beer gross margin down
1.0ppt to 47.3%, mainly due to rising material costs, and baijiu gross margin
down 4.9ppt to 62.5%. Adjusted EBITDA (excluding Shenzhen
headquarters-related income) reached Rmb7,997m (-1% yoy), with an
adjusted EBITDA margin of 33.0% (-0.8ppt yoy). Reported net profit was
Rmb5,169m (-11% yoy). Per our estimates, adjusted net profit was
Rmb5,109m (-1% yoy), 3% below consensus, with an adjusted net margin
of 21.1% (-0.5ppt yoy).
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Previous TP :
HK$21.06
HK$28.60
35.8%
HK$30.30
Analyst
Analyst
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