Company Coverage
Macau Gaming: Jul 26’s GGR Misses Consensus By 2%
OVERWEIGHT (Maintained)
Analyst
Analyst
Highlights
- Macau’s Jul 26 GGR reached MOP20.3b, down 8% yoy, but up 9% mom. July’s GGR figure missed market consensus by 2%, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level.
- 1H26 cumulative visitations increased 9% yoy to 20.9m, up 3% vs 2019’s level, with growth mainly driven by same-day visitors, which jumped 15% yoy, while overnight visitors remained largely flat
- Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick.
Analysis
- Jul 26’s GGR missed market consensus by 2%. According to DICJ, Macau’s Jul 26 gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached MOP20.3b, down 8% yoy but up 9% mom. July’s GGR figure missed market consensus by 2%, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 78% in Jun 26). For 7M26, GGR rose by 4% yoy to MOP147.2b.
- Visitations to Macau increased 9% yoy and 3% vs 2019’s level in 1H26. According to the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC), in Jun 26, Macau’s total visitations reached 2.8m, down 3% yoy and 20% mom, recovering to 90% of 2019’s level. Of this, Mainland Chinese visitors reached 2.0m, down 2% yoy and 23% mom, and same-day visitors totalled 1.6m, up 2% yoy but down 24% mom. The average length of stay for visitors remained unchanged mom at 1.7 days. For 1H26, cumulative visitations increased 9% yoy to 20.9m, up 3% vs 2019’s level, with growth mainly driven by same-day visitors, which jumped 15% yoy, while overnight visitors remained largely flat.
- Hotel occupancy rates and average room rates fell mom due to World Cup in Jun 26. The Macao Government Tourism Office reported a decrease in hotel occupancy rates to 88.5% in Jun 26 from 91.7% in May 26, and average room rates declined to MOP1,287 in Jun 26 from MOP1,387 in May 26 due to the FIFA World Cup.
Valuation/Recommendation
- Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. We still prefer Galaxy, as its post-World Cup events calendar (Tencent Music Awards, i-dle and ENHYPEN concerts) should help capture incremental high-end demand amid a premium-driven recovery path in GGR. We maintain Galaxy’s target price at HK$48.00, based on a 12.0x target 2026 EV/EBITDA ratio. The stock currently trades at 7.9x 2026 EV/EBITDA and 7.4x 2027 EV/EBITDA.
Highlights
- Macau’s Jul 26 GGR reached MOP20.3b, down 8% yoy, but up 9% mom. July’s GGR figure missed market consensus by 2%, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level.
- 1H26 cumulative visitations increased 9% yoy to 20.9m, up 3% vs 2019’s level, with growth mainly driven by same-day visitors, which jumped 15% yoy, while overnight visitors remained largely flat
- Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick.
Analysis
- Jul 26’s GGR missed market consensus by 2%. According to DICJ, Macau’s Jul 26 gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached MOP20.3b, down 8% yoy but up 9% mom. July’s GGR figure missed market consensus by 2%, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 78% in Jun 26). For 7M26, GGR rose by 4% yoy to MOP147.2b.
- Visitations to Macau increased 9% yoy and 3% vs 2019’s level in 1H26. According to the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC), in Jun 26, Macau’s total visitations reached 2.8m, down 3% yoy and 20% mom, recovering to 90% of 2019’s level. Of this, Mainland Chinese visitors reached 2.0m, down 2% yoy and 23% mom, and same-day visitors totalled 1.6m, up 2% yoy but down 24% mom. The average length of stay for visitors remained unchanged mom at 1.7 days. For 1H26, cumulative visitations increased 9% yoy to 20.9m, up 3% vs 2019’s level, with growth mainly driven by same-day visitors, which jumped 15% yoy, while overnight visitors remained largely flat.
- Hotel occupancy rates and average room rates fell mom due to World Cup in Jun 26. The Macao Government Tourism Office reported a decrease in hotel occupancy rates to 88.5% in Jun 26 from 91.7% in May 26, and average room rates declined to MOP1,287 in Jun 26 from MOP1,387 in May 26 due to the FIFA World Cup.
Valuation/Recommendation
- Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. We still prefer Galaxy, as its post-World Cup events calendar (Tencent Music Awards, i-dle and ENHYPEN concerts) should help capture incremental high-end demand amid a premium-driven recovery path in GGR. We maintain Galaxy’s target price at HK$48.00, based on a 12.0x target 2026 EV/EBITDA ratio. The stock currently trades at 7.9x 2026 EV/EBITDA and 7.4x 2027 EV/EBITDA.
OVERWEIGHT (Maintained)
Analyst
Analyst
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