Highlights

• The HKSAR government published the 2026 Policy Address and Hong Kong’s first Five-Year Plan, emphasising policy continuity and consistency. The near-term impact on the housing market is neutral, in our view. 
   
• The Five-Year Plan identified NM land creation as its only binding economic indicator. This may reshape the investment and land-banking strategy of developers.
   
• Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. The address is broadly neutral for the sector. Rising HIBOR and tightening tax polices are major risks. Top picks: SHKP and Link REIT.
   

Analysis

• The two policy documents (2026 Policy Address and Hong Kong’s Five-Year Plan) are broadly neutral for the residential market. Demand-side support is confined to a narrow pro-fertility measure, while the medium-term land supply policy remains largely consistent with the one set in 2025.
  
  a)    Targeted pro-fertility housing support, but no broad demand-side easings. As part of pro-fertility measures, the government will introduce a stamp-duty concession of up to HK$20,000 for eligible homebuyers who purchase a residential property from one year before to two years after childbirth, provided the child is born in Hong Kong on or after 16 Sep 26 and either parent is a Hong Kong permanent resident. However, no broad demand-boosting measures were announced, given the relatively strong momentum in the residential market.
  
  b)    Medium-term land supply policy is largely unchanged from 2025. The government targets about 2,500ha of spade-ready sites over the next decade (2027-28 to 2036-37), against the 10-year target of 2,600ha in the 2025 Policy Address. About 1,400ha, or 56% of the decade total, is due in the first five years, and the Northern Metropolis (NM) accounts for about 1,000ha, or 71%, of that. The Kau Yi Chau Artificial Islands project, put on hold in the 2025 Policy Address, is absent from both the 2026 Policy Address and the first Five-Year Plan.