Periodic/Sector reports
China Property: New Home Sales Accelerate In Tier 1 Cities In Early-Sep 26 But Weaken In Lower-tier Cities
UNDERWEIGHT (Maintained)
Analyst
Analyst
Highlights
- New-home sales in 19 major cities fell 3% yoy in 1-13 Sep 26, but the composition was sharply split: the four Tier 1 cities rose 23% yoy while Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities fell 12% and 28% yoy respectively. Beijing/Shanghai/Guangzhou rose 28%/35%/12% yoy, leaving Shenzhen (-14% yoy) as the only Tier 1 city to decline. On a ytd basis (as of 13 September), 19 major cities fell 4% yoy, with Tier 1/2 cities changing by +4%/-8% yoy respectively.
- Second-hand transactions told the same story. In 1-13 Sep 26, average daily sales in three Tier 1 cities rose 13% yoy, still led by Shanghai at +26% yoy, while nine Tier 2 cities were broadly flat. On a ytd basis, Tier 1/2 cities changed by +10%/-4% yoy respectively. Meanwhile, second-hand home listing prices continued to trend downward.
- Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Our top picks are COLI and CR Mixc.
Analysis
- High-frequency data for 1-13 Sep 26 show the recovery broadening within Tier 1 cities. New-home sales in the four Tier 1 cities rose 23% yoy and 10% mom, with Beijing and Guangzhou joining Shanghai in positive territory, while Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities fell 12% and 28% yoy respectively. The second-hand market had the same shape: three Tier 1 cities up 13% yoy against nine Tier 2 cities that were broadly flat. We read this as a mix shift towards the four Tier 1 cities rather than a national turn.
- a) New-home sales in 19 major cities fell 3% yoy in 1-13 Sep 26. Average daily new-home sales in Tier 1/2 cities changed by +23%/-12% yoy respectively, against +16%/-11% yoy in 1-16 Aug 26 — Tier 1 momentum strengthened while Tier 2 weakened further, and Tier 3 cities dropped 28% yoy. Among Tier 1 cities, Beijing/Shanghai/Guangzhou/Shenzhen recorded yoy sales changes of +28%/+35%/+12%/-14% respectively, so Shenzhen was the only Tier 1 city to decline. Measured against the full month of Aug 26, Tier 1 cities rose 10% mom while Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities fell 14% and 12% mom respectively. On a ytd basis (as of 13 September), average daily new-home sales in 19 major cities declined 4% yoy, with Tier 1/2 cities changing by +4%/-8% yoy respectively; within Tier 1 cities, Beijing was flat while Shanghai/Guangzhou/Shenzhen rose 8%/3%/3% yoy respectively. The early-September pick-up has broadened from Shanghai to Beijing and Guangzhou, but it still stops at the Tier 1 boundary.
Highlights
- New-home sales in 19 major cities fell 3% yoy in 1-13 Sep 26, but the composition was sharply split: the four Tier 1 cities rose 23% yoy while Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities fell 12% and 28% yoy respectively. Beijing/Shanghai/Guangzhou rose 28%/35%/12% yoy, leaving Shenzhen (-14% yoy) as the only Tier 1 city to decline. On a ytd basis (as of 13 September), 19 major cities fell 4% yoy, with Tier 1/2 cities changing by +4%/-8% yoy respectively.
- Second-hand transactions told the same story. In 1-13 Sep 26, average daily sales in three Tier 1 cities rose 13% yoy, still led by Shanghai at +26% yoy, while nine Tier 2 cities were broadly flat. On a ytd basis, Tier 1/2 cities changed by +10%/-4% yoy respectively. Meanwhile, second-hand home listing prices continued to trend downward.
- Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Our top picks are COLI and CR Mixc.
Analysis
- High-frequency data for 1-13 Sep 26 show the recovery broadening within Tier 1 cities. New-home sales in the four Tier 1 cities rose 23% yoy and 10% mom, with Beijing and Guangzhou joining Shanghai in positive territory, while Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities fell 12% and 28% yoy respectively. The second-hand market had the same shape: three Tier 1 cities up 13% yoy against nine Tier 2 cities that were broadly flat. We read this as a mix shift towards the four Tier 1 cities rather than a national turn.
- a) New-home sales in 19 major cities fell 3% yoy in 1-13 Sep 26. Average daily new-home sales in Tier 1/2 cities changed by +23%/-12% yoy respectively, against +16%/-11% yoy in 1-16 Aug 26 — Tier 1 momentum strengthened while Tier 2 weakened further, and Tier 3 cities dropped 28% yoy. Among Tier 1 cities, Beijing/Shanghai/Guangzhou/Shenzhen recorded yoy sales changes of +28%/+35%/+12%/-14% respectively, so Shenzhen was the only Tier 1 city to decline. Measured against the full month of Aug 26, Tier 1 cities rose 10% mom while Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities fell 14% and 12% mom respectively. On a ytd basis (as of 13 September), average daily new-home sales in 19 major cities declined 4% yoy, with Tier 1/2 cities changing by +4%/-8% yoy respectively; within Tier 1 cities, Beijing was flat while Shanghai/Guangzhou/Shenzhen rose 8%/3%/3% yoy respectively. The early-September pick-up has broadened from Shanghai to Beijing and Guangzhou, but it still stops at the Tier 1 boundary.
UNDERWEIGHT (Maintained)
Analyst
Analyst
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This report is provided subject to, and must be read together with, the full Disclosures / Disclaimers available at this link, which are incorporated by reference into this report. In particular, this report is intended for general circulation and informational purposes only and does not constitute personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment product or security. You should independently evaluate the information and, where necessary, seek advice from a qualified financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment. Analyst certifications required under applicable regulations, including SEC Regulation AC (where relevant), are included in this report. By accessing, receiving or using this report, you acknowledge that you have read, understood and agreed to be bound by the Disclosures / Disclaimers, as may be amended, supplemented or updated from time to time.
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