Periodic/Sector reports
China Property: NBS Publishes Inaugural Second-Hand Transactions Data; Household Mortgage Borrowing Is Still Shrinking
UNDERWEIGHT (Maintained)
Analyst
Analyst
Highlights
- The NBS published national second-hand transaction data for the first time, which showed 10.6% yoy growth and a transaction volume 1.32x that of residential new homes in 8M26. Household medium-to-long-term loans continued contracting in Aug 26, leaving the 8M26 net increase 98% below that of last year.
- High-frequency data for 1-20 Sep 26 show that Tier 1 cities continue to lead the recovery. New-home sales in 19 major cities rose 5% yoy during 1-20 Sep 26, with the four Tier 1 cities up 17% yoy and Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities flat. Second-hand sales rose 13% yoy in three Tier 1 cities and turned positive at 4% yoy in nine Tier 2 cities. Second-hand listing prices in 100 cities fell 0.7% mom.
- Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Our top picks are COLI and CR Mixc.
Analysis
- NBS publishes national second-hand transaction data for the first time, with volumes already exceeding new-home transactions. The NBS added second-hand transaction data to its 8M26 release on 15 Sep 26. National second-hand transactions came in at 549.2m sqm in 8M26, up 10.6% yoy, against residential new-home sales of 415.0m sqm, down 13.0% yoy. Second-hand transaction volume is 1.32x residential new-home volume, and we expect second-hand transactions to account for an increasingly larger share of the market. Our own 13-city sample, which counts transactions rather than floor area, rose 5.5% yoy in 8M26, with Shanghai, Foshan, Dongguan and Xiamen growing faster than the national 10.6%, while Hangzhou fell 11.2%.
- Land sales revenue fell 28.6% yoy in 8M26, and the narrowing is a base effect. The Ministry of Finance reported Rmb1,375.3b of land transfer revenue in 8M26, down 28.6% yoy, against -30.8% yoy in 7M26 and -31.5% yoy in 1H26. In Aug 26, land sales alone reached Rmb202.2b, down 12.5% yoy. The narrower decline largely reflects a low base, as Aug 25 sales had fallen 13.7% mom.
Highlights
- The NBS published national second-hand transaction data for the first time, which showed 10.6% yoy growth and a transaction volume 1.32x that of residential new homes in 8M26. Household medium-to-long-term loans continued contracting in Aug 26, leaving the 8M26 net increase 98% below that of last year.
- High-frequency data for 1-20 Sep 26 show that Tier 1 cities continue to lead the recovery. New-home sales in 19 major cities rose 5% yoy during 1-20 Sep 26, with the four Tier 1 cities up 17% yoy and Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities flat. Second-hand sales rose 13% yoy in three Tier 1 cities and turned positive at 4% yoy in nine Tier 2 cities. Second-hand listing prices in 100 cities fell 0.7% mom.
- Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Our top picks are COLI and CR Mixc.
Analysis
- NBS publishes national second-hand transaction data for the first time, with volumes already exceeding new-home transactions. The NBS added second-hand transaction data to its 8M26 release on 15 Sep 26. National second-hand transactions came in at 549.2m sqm in 8M26, up 10.6% yoy, against residential new-home sales of 415.0m sqm, down 13.0% yoy. Second-hand transaction volume is 1.32x residential new-home volume, and we expect second-hand transactions to account for an increasingly larger share of the market. Our own 13-city sample, which counts transactions rather than floor area, rose 5.5% yoy in 8M26, with Shanghai, Foshan, Dongguan and Xiamen growing faster than the national 10.6%, while Hangzhou fell 11.2%.
- Land sales revenue fell 28.6% yoy in 8M26, and the narrowing is a base effect. The Ministry of Finance reported Rmb1,375.3b of land transfer revenue in 8M26, down 28.6% yoy, against -30.8% yoy in 7M26 and -31.5% yoy in 1H26. In Aug 26, land sales alone reached Rmb202.2b, down 12.5% yoy. The narrower decline largely reflects a low base, as Aug 25 sales had fallen 13.7% mom.
UNDERWEIGHT (Maintained)
Analyst
Analyst
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