Periodic/Sector reports
China Property: NBS Publishes Inaugural Second-Hand Transactions Data; Household Mortgage Borrowing Is Still Shrinking
UNDERWEIGHT (Maintained)
Analyst
Analyst
Highlights
- The NBS published national second-hand transaction data for the first time, which showed 10.6% yoy growth and a transaction volume 1.32x that of residential new homes in 8M26. Household medium-to-long-term loans continued contracting in Aug 26, leaving the 8M26 net increase 98% below that of last year.
- High-frequency data for 1-20 Sep 26 show that Tier 1 cities continue to lead the recovery. New-home sales in 19 major cities rose 5% yoy during 1-20 Sep 26, with the four Tier 1 cities up 17% yoy and Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities flat. Second-hand sales rose 13% yoy in three Tier 1 cities and turned positive at 4% yoy in nine Tier 2 cities. Second-hand listing prices in 100 cities fell 0.7% mom.
- Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Our top picks are COLI and CR Mixc.
Analysis
- NBS publishes national second-hand transaction data for the first time, with volumes already exceeding new-home transactions. The NBS added second-hand transaction data to its 8M26 release on 15 Sep 26. National second-hand transactions came in at 549.2m sqm in 8M26, up 10.6% yoy, against residential new-home sales of 415.0m sqm, down 13.0% yoy. Second-hand transaction volume is 1.32x residential new-home volume, and we expect second-hand transactions to account for an increasingly larger share of the market. Our own 13-city sample, which counts transactions rather than floor area, rose 5.5% yoy in 8M26, with Shanghai, Foshan, Dongguan and Xiamen growing faster than the national 10.6%, while Hangzhou fell 11.2%.
- Land sales revenue fell 28.6% yoy in 8M26, and the narrowing is a base effect. The Ministry of Finance reported Rmb1,375.3b of land transfer revenue in 8M26, down 28.6% yoy, against -30.8% yoy in 7M26 and -31.5% yoy in 1H26. In Aug 26, land sales alone reached Rmb202.2b, down 12.5% yoy. The narrower decline largely reflects a low base, as Aug 25 sales had fallen 13.7% mom.
Highlights
- The NBS published national second-hand transaction data for the first time, which showed 10.6% yoy growth and a transaction volume 1.32x that of residential new homes in 8M26. Household medium-to-long-term loans continued contracting in Aug 26, leaving the 8M26 net increase 98% below that of last year.
- High-frequency data for 1-20 Sep 26 show that Tier 1 cities continue to lead the recovery. New-home sales in 19 major cities rose 5% yoy during 1-20 Sep 26, with the four Tier 1 cities up 17% yoy and Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities flat. Second-hand sales rose 13% yoy in three Tier 1 cities and turned positive at 4% yoy in nine Tier 2 cities. Second-hand listing prices in 100 cities fell 0.7% mom.
- Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Our top picks are COLI and CR Mixc.
Analysis
- NBS publishes national second-hand transaction data for the first time, with volumes already exceeding new-home transactions. The NBS added second-hand transaction data to its 8M26 release on 15 Sep 26. National second-hand transactions came in at 549.2m sqm in 8M26, up 10.6% yoy, against residential new-home sales of 415.0m sqm, down 13.0% yoy. Second-hand transaction volume is 1.32x residential new-home volume, and we expect second-hand transactions to account for an increasingly larger share of the market. Our own 13-city sample, which counts transactions rather than floor area, rose 5.5% yoy in 8M26, with Shanghai, Foshan, Dongguan and Xiamen growing faster than the national 10.6%, while Hangzhou fell 11.2%.
- Land sales revenue fell 28.6% yoy in 8M26, and the narrowing is a base effect. The Ministry of Finance reported Rmb1,375.3b of land transfer revenue in 8M26, down 28.6% yoy, against -30.8% yoy in 7M26 and -31.5% yoy in 1H26. In Aug 26, land sales alone reached Rmb202.2b, down 12.5% yoy. The narrower decline largely reflects a low base, as Aug 25 sales had fallen 13.7% mom.
UNDERWEIGHT (Maintained)
Analyst
Analyst
IMPORTANT NOTICE - DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS
This report is provided subject to, and must be read together with, the full Disclosures / Disclaimers available at this link, which are incorporated by reference into this report. In particular, this report is intended for general circulation and informational purposes only and does not constitute personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment product or security. You should independently evaluate the information and, where necessary, seek advice from a qualified financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment. Analyst certifications required under applicable regulations, including SEC Regulation AC (where relevant), are included in this report. By accessing, receiving or using this report, you acknowledge that you have read, understood and agreed to be bound by the Disclosures / Disclaimers, as may be amended, supplemented or updated from time to time.
Related articles
Periodic/Sector reports
8 Sept 2026
China Property: Shanghai Shifts Housing Supply From New Build To Renewal; National Land Supply Keeps Shrinking
Periodic/Sector reports
15 Sept 2026
China Property: New Home Sales Accelerate In Tier 1 Cities In Early-Sep 26 But Weaken In Lower-tier Cities
Periodic/Sector reports
17 Sept 2026
Hong Kong Property: Takeaways From 2026 Policy Address And Hong Kong’s Five-Year Plan
Our latest research
Periodic/Sector reports
22 Sept 2026
IT Hardware: Takeaways From 2026 Huawei Connect
Periodic/Sector reports
21 Sept 2026
China Internet: Hyperscalers Moving Into AI Chips: Custom Silicon Gains Traction, Compute Strategies Diverge
Periodic/Sector reports
18 Sept 2026