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Analyst
Mixed August Data
- Industrial production growth accelerated to 5.2% yoy (+0.7ppt mom) in August, above Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 4.8% yoy. FAI ytd growth fell further to -7.2% yoy (-0.5ppt mom), marginally below consensus of -7.1% yoy, dragged by property FAI ytd (-19.9% yoy, -0.7ppt mom).
- Retail sales growth slowed to 0.4% yoy, below consensus of 0.8% yoy and July's 0.6% yoy. The surveyed unemployment rate edged up to 5.3% (+0.1ppt mom).
- August's data was mixed and slightly market negative, with a narrowly sourced production beat set against further weakness in both consumption and investment; the policy outlooks are set to stay focused on accelerating project implementation.
What’s New
- Industrial production growth accelerated to 5.2% yoy in August (+0.7ppt mom), above Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 4.8% yoy. In August, 29 of 41 major industries maintained yoy growth in output value (vs 25 in July). High-tech manufacturing continued to stand out in terms of its growth (16.7% yoy, -0.2ppt mom), led by industrial robots (34.6% yoy), NEVs (21.9% yoy) and integrated circuits (20.6% yoy), whereas microcomputer equipment posted the steepest decline (-25.6% yoy). External demand remained a key driver of industrial production, with export delivery value rising 11.1% yoy.
- August's retail sales growth slowed to 0.4% yoy, down from July's 0.6% yoy and below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 0.8% yoy, extending the weak run seen since April. By consumption type, catering revenue grew 1.1% yoy (-0.3ppt mom) while retail sales of goods rose just 0.3% yoy (-0.2ppt mom). Automobile sales continued to decline at -18.5% yoy (-1.5ppt mom), followed by gold, silver and jewellery (-17.5% yoy) and construction and decoration materials (-11.8% yoy, +2.4ppt mom). The main positives were communication equipment (27.3% yoy, +6.9ppt mom) and tobacco and alcohol (12.5% yoy, +6.5ppt mom).
- FAI ytd growth fell further to -7.2% yoy in August (-0.5ppt mom), marginally below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of -7.1% yoy. Property FAI ytd deepened to -19.9% yoy (-0.7ppt mom), though slightly better than consensus estimate of -20.1% yoy. The weakness remained broader than property: infrastructure and manufacturing FAI ytd have contracted 4.0% yoy and 2.3% yoy respectively, deteriorating by 0.4ppt and 0.6ppt from July. On a positive note, our estimated single-month FAI contraction narrowed to -10.7% yoy in August, improving from -12.7% yoy in July. With the recent push to accelerate FAI project implementation, we are likely to see a further easing in the contraction.
Mixed August Data
- Industrial production growth accelerated to 5.2% yoy (+0.7ppt mom) in August, above Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 4.8% yoy. FAI ytd growth fell further to -7.2% yoy (-0.5ppt mom), marginally below consensus of -7.1% yoy, dragged by property FAI ytd (-19.9% yoy, -0.7ppt mom).
- Retail sales growth slowed to 0.4% yoy, below consensus of 0.8% yoy and July's 0.6% yoy. The surveyed unemployment rate edged up to 5.3% (+0.1ppt mom).
- August's data was mixed and slightly market negative, with a narrowly sourced production beat set against further weakness in both consumption and investment; the policy outlooks are set to stay focused on accelerating project implementation.
What’s New
- Industrial production growth accelerated to 5.2% yoy in August (+0.7ppt mom), above Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 4.8% yoy. In August, 29 of 41 major industries maintained yoy growth in output value (vs 25 in July). High-tech manufacturing continued to stand out in terms of its growth (16.7% yoy, -0.2ppt mom), led by industrial robots (34.6% yoy), NEVs (21.9% yoy) and integrated circuits (20.6% yoy), whereas microcomputer equipment posted the steepest decline (-25.6% yoy). External demand remained a key driver of industrial production, with export delivery value rising 11.1% yoy.
- August's retail sales growth slowed to 0.4% yoy, down from July's 0.6% yoy and below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 0.8% yoy, extending the weak run seen since April. By consumption type, catering revenue grew 1.1% yoy (-0.3ppt mom) while retail sales of goods rose just 0.3% yoy (-0.2ppt mom). Automobile sales continued to decline at -18.5% yoy (-1.5ppt mom), followed by gold, silver and jewellery (-17.5% yoy) and construction and decoration materials (-11.8% yoy, +2.4ppt mom). The main positives were communication equipment (27.3% yoy, +6.9ppt mom) and tobacco and alcohol (12.5% yoy, +6.5ppt mom).
- FAI ytd growth fell further to -7.2% yoy in August (-0.5ppt mom), marginally below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of -7.1% yoy. Property FAI ytd deepened to -19.9% yoy (-0.7ppt mom), though slightly better than consensus estimate of -20.1% yoy. The weakness remained broader than property: infrastructure and manufacturing FAI ytd have contracted 4.0% yoy and 2.3% yoy respectively, deteriorating by 0.4ppt and 0.6ppt from July. On a positive note, our estimated single-month FAI contraction narrowed to -10.7% yoy in August, improving from -12.7% yoy in July. With the recent push to accelerate FAI project implementation, we are likely to see a further easing in the contraction.
Analyst
Analyst
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