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Crude Oil Prices Lift Import Growth Above Consensus; Export Growth Moderates
China’s export growth eased to 35.2% yoy in October (-1.1ppt mom), slightly below Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 36.3% yoy. Growth moderated across all five key markets despite a low base in Oct 25, with the US and ASEAN recording the largest slowdowns.
Import growth accelerated to 41.6% yoy (+10.6ppt mom), well above consensus’ 33.9% yoy, led by China’s crude oil import growth rising to 39.3% yoy as higher oil prices lifted import values. The trade surplus narrowed to US$105.3b, below consensus’ US$125.8b.
Tech-related trade remained firm, with high-tech products export growth at 66.6% yoy and integrated circuits import growth at 78.3% yoy. Crude oil prices have joined tech-related demand as a key swing factor for headline import growth.
Our View
China’s export growth eased to 35.2% yoy in October from 36.3% yoy in September (-1.1ppt mom), slightly below Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 36.3% yoy. The moderation was broad-based, with all five key markets recording slower growth even as the base turned more favourable. China’s export growth to Hong Kong eased to 48.6% yoy (-2.4ppt mom), regaining its position as the fastest-growing key market, consistent with its role as a transit hub. China’s export growth to ASEAN moderated to 46.3% yoy (-6.0ppt mom). Likewise, China’s export growth to the US slowed to 32.9% yoy (-6.7ppt mom), as the low base from Oct 25 became marginally less supportive. Moreover, China’s export growth to the EU eased to 24.3% yoy (-1.0ppt mom) and China’s export growth to Japan slowed to 14.3% yoy (-1.5ppt mom).
China’s import growth accelerated to 41.6% yoy in October (+10.6ppt mom), well above Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 33.9% yoy and the fastest pace this year, supported by a lower base. Crude oil was the only key commodity to accelerate and the main swing factor behind the beat. China’s import growth of crude oil rose to 39.3% yoy (+37.7ppt mom), the fastest pace this year, as oil prices stayed elevated on renewed Middle East supply disruptions. On the other hand, growth of the remaining key commodities slowed. China’s import growth of coal eased to 48.6% yoy (-3.9ppt mom) but stayed elevated on a low base, while copper ore moderated to 16.6% yoy (-16.8ppt mom) and iron ore declined further to -11.7% yoy (-5.0ppt mom).
For trade of key products, high-tech products export growth reached its fastest pace this year at 66.6% yoy (+3.0ppt mom). China’s mechanical and electrical products export growth strengthened to 46.1% yoy (+2.4ppt mom). China’s import growth of integrated circuits picked up to 78.3% yoy (+3.6ppt mom), though import value eased from September’s record. In contrast, China’s motor vehicle export growth slowed to 31.0% yoy (-23.2ppt mom). China’s agricultural products import growth has turned negative at -2.2% yoy (-7.7ppt mom), the first contraction ytd.
The trade surplus narrowed to US$105.3b from September’s US$133.5b, below consensus’ US$125.8b. Import growth outpaced export growth as higher oil prices lifted crude oil imports, while tech-related trade remained firm on both sides. Looking ahead, headline import growth increasingly hinges on oil prices alongside tech-related demand, while a less favourable base from November may weigh on export growth into year end.
Crude Oil Prices Lift Import Growth Above Consensus; Export Growth Moderates
China’s export growth eased to 35.2% yoy in October (-1.1ppt mom), slightly below Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 36.3% yoy. Growth moderated across all five key markets despite a low base in Oct 25, with the US and ASEAN recording the largest slowdowns.
Import growth accelerated to 41.6% yoy (+10.6ppt mom), well above consensus’ 33.9% yoy, led by China’s crude oil import growth rising to 39.3% yoy as higher oil prices lifted import values. The trade surplus narrowed to US$105.3b, below consensus’ US$125.8b.
Tech-related trade remained firm, with high-tech products export growth at 66.6% yoy and integrated circuits import growth at 78.3% yoy. Crude oil prices have joined tech-related demand as a key swing factor for headline import growth.
Our View
China’s export growth eased to 35.2% yoy in October from 36.3% yoy in September (-1.1ppt mom), slightly below Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 36.3% yoy. The moderation was broad-based, with all five key markets recording slower growth even as the base turned more favourable. China’s export growth to Hong Kong eased to 48.6% yoy (-2.4ppt mom), regaining its position as the fastest-growing key market, consistent with its role as a transit hub. China’s export growth to ASEAN moderated to 46.3% yoy (-6.0ppt mom). Likewise, China’s export growth to the US slowed to 32.9% yoy (-6.7ppt mom), as the low base from Oct 25 became marginally less supportive. Moreover, China’s export growth to the EU eased to 24.3% yoy (-1.0ppt mom) and China’s export growth to Japan slowed to 14.3% yoy (-1.5ppt mom).
China’s import growth accelerated to 41.6% yoy in October (+10.6ppt mom), well above Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 33.9% yoy and the fastest pace this year, supported by a lower base. Crude oil was the only key commodity to accelerate and the main swing factor behind the beat. China’s import growth of crude oil rose to 39.3% yoy (+37.7ppt mom), the fastest pace this year, as oil prices stayed elevated on renewed Middle East supply disruptions. On the other hand, growth of the remaining key commodities slowed. China’s import growth of coal eased to 48.6% yoy (-3.9ppt mom) but stayed elevated on a low base, while copper ore moderated to 16.6% yoy (-16.8ppt mom) and iron ore declined further to -11.7% yoy (-5.0ppt mom).
For trade of key products, high-tech products export growth reached its fastest pace this year at 66.6% yoy (+3.0ppt mom). China’s mechanical and electrical products export growth strengthened to 46.1% yoy (+2.4ppt mom). China’s import growth of integrated circuits picked up to 78.3% yoy (+3.6ppt mom), though import value eased from September’s record. In contrast, China’s motor vehicle export growth slowed to 31.0% yoy (-23.2ppt mom). China’s agricultural products import growth has turned negative at -2.2% yoy (-7.7ppt mom), the first contraction ytd.
The trade surplus narrowed to US$105.3b from September’s US$133.5b, below consensus’ US$125.8b. Import growth outpaced export growth as higher oil prices lifted crude oil imports, while tech-related trade remained firm on both sides. Looking ahead, headline import growth increasingly hinges on oil prices alongside tech-related demand, while a less favourable base from November may weigh on export growth into year end.
Analyst
Analyst
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