Highlights

• We expect PTT to report a strong 2Q26 net profit of Bt52.63b, up both qoq and yoy, driven by a robust gas business performance and a significant improvement in earnings contribution from subsidiaries and affiliates.
   
• We estimate PTT’s interim dividend at Bt1.10/share, implying a 2.93% simple yield. 
   
• Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt45.00 (previously Bt43.00).
   

Analysis

• Expect record-high 2Q26 net profit. We expect PTT to report a 2Q26 net profit of Bt52.63b, up 104% qoq and 144% yoy, supported by a broad-based recovery across its core businesses. Key drivers include a stronger gas business performance, supported by higher sales volumes, and a significant improvement in earnings contributions from subsidiaries and affiliates, particularly from the exploration and production (E&P) and petrochemical and refinery (P&R) businesses. 
   
• Gas business EBITDA to grow both qoq and yoy. We estimate the gas business’ EBITDA at Bt23.91b, up 46% qoq and 79% yoy, supported by a recovery across its key businesses.
   

• a) Natural Gas Supply and Trading (S&T) is expected to report a gas sales volume of 4,220 MMSCFD, up 5% qoq and 9% yoy, supported by stronger gas demand. In addition, the average pool gas price is likely to increase 15.4% qoq, while gas costs should remain broadly stable qoq, resulting in a significant expansion in margins. Consequently, we expect S&T’s EBITDA to rise sharply to Bt4.82b, up 83% qoq and 30%yoy; and b) the gas separation plant’s (GSP) EBITDA is projected at Bt7.80b, surging both qoq and yoy, driven by a high utilisation rate of 97% (vs 96.1% in 1Q26 and 90% in 2Q25), together with stronger product prices following a recovery in petrochemical prices. As a result, we foresee the GSP business's EBITDA margin expanding significantly both qoq and yoy.
   
• Strong recovery in earnings contribution from subsidiaries and affiliates. We estimate earnings contribution from subsidiaries and affiliates at Bt47.89b, up 13% qoq and 159% yoy, driven by: a) a stronger E&P performance, supported by higher sales volumes from domestic and Algeria projects, as well as higher ASPs in line with improving crude oil prices and gas selling prices; and b) an improved P&R performance following higher market gross refinery margin (GRM) and petrochemical spreads, which should be sufficient to offset stock losses and hedging losses.
   
• Genesis project progressing, albeit slightly behind the original timeline. PTT expects the Genesis project to conclude by 1Q27, although it is slightly behind the initial plan due to geopolitical uncertainties. Nevertheless, PTT continues to pursue strategic partners to restructure its P&R portfolio and enhance long-term competitiveness. The potential strategic partners could provide value enhancement through technology capabilities, market access, feedstock optimisation, and operational synergies.
   
• Expect an interim dividend of Bt1.10/share. We forecast an interim dividend of Bt1.10/share, implying a 2.93% simple yield. We maintain our 2026 dividend forecast at Bt2.50/share, implying a 6.67% simple yield. However, PTT paid a total dividend of Bt2.30/share for 2025, including a special dividend of Bt0.20/share.