Highlights

• SKYNOMAD’s locked orders surpassed 70,000 units in the first month after launch. The numbers are on the lower end of expectations but the premiumisation trend continues.
   
• However, the smartphone business is expected to face sustained pressure in 2027-28 with component supply remaining tight.
   
• Maintain HOLD with a higher target price of HK$27.60.
   

Analysis

• SKYNOMAD series locked orders surpassed 70,000 units in the first month after launch. For comparison, unofficial industry data indicated that SU7 facelift’s locked orders was around 60,000 units after the first month of launch, which implies a stronger interest in the SKYNOMAD line-up according to unofficial data. That said, note that investors’ expectations were quite high at 70,000-80,000 units, so the 70,000 units of locked orders are likely at the lower end of expectations. Given that the actual locked order numbers are in line with unofficial market data circulating in early-Oct 26, there should be limited impact from the slower order intake.
   
• Lead time ranges from 4-12 weeks. As of 9 Oct 26, Xiaomi Corp’s (Xiaomi) official site indicated that the lead time for the SKYNOMAD line-up is as follows: N70 Pro at 4-7 weeks; N70 Max at 5-8 weeks, N90 Max at 4-7 weeks, and N90 Max Explorer at 9-12 weeks. We also estimate that demand is concentrated at the N70 Max/N90 Max SKUs, implying a better mix compared with our previous expectations. 
   
• Xiaomi’s 2026 shipment numbers remain on track. Xiaomi delivered more than 40,000 EVs in September, which include around 30,000 units of SU7 and YU7, and more than 10,000 units of SKYNOMAD. This brings its ytd shipment to just above 286,000 units. For 4Q26 deliveries, we are expecting: a) more than 50,000 units of SKYNOMAD; and b) around 90,000 units of older models, which brings Xiaomi’s full-year shipment to our estimate of 430,000 units.