Company Coverage
Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) - 3Q26: Results In Line; Direct Sales Up 40% On i-Moutai Growth
HOLD (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Previous TP :
Rmb1,392.05
Rmb1,458.00
+4.7%
Rmb1,295.00
Analyst
Analyst
Highlights
- Moutai’s 3Q26 revenue rose 3% yoy and net profit rose 4% yoy, both in line with consensus estimates. By channel, direct sales rose 40% yoy, accounting for 54% of liquor revenue in 3Q26, while wholesale channel sales declined 22% yoy. i-Moutai sales came in at Rmb18.3b in 3Q26, contributing 84% of direct sales, driven by its continued DTC transformation.
- As of end-3Q26, contract liabilities fell 73% yoy and 34% qoq to Rmb2.1b, while cash inflow from sales of goods and services rose 3% yoy to Rmb45.1b.
- Maintain HOLD; raise target price by 13% to Rmb1,458.00.
Analysis
3Q26 results in line. Kweichow Moutai (Moutai) reported 9M26 revenue of Rmb133,284m (+2% yoy). Gross profit (operational) was Rmb117,325m (flat yoy), and operational gross margin was 89.6% (-1.7ppt yoy). EBIT totalled Rmb88,430m (flat yoy), and EBIT margin was 66.3% (-1.5ppt yoy). Net profit was Rmb64,467m (flat yoy), and net margin was 48.4% (-1.0ppt yoy). Core net profit was Rmb64,325m (-1% yoy), and core net margin was 48.3% (-1.1ppt yoy).
Highlights
- Moutai’s 3Q26 revenue rose 3% yoy and net profit rose 4% yoy, both in line with consensus estimates. By channel, direct sales rose 40% yoy, accounting for 54% of liquor revenue in 3Q26, while wholesale channel sales declined 22% yoy. i-Moutai sales came in at Rmb18.3b in 3Q26, contributing 84% of direct sales, driven by its continued DTC transformation.
- As of end-3Q26, contract liabilities fell 73% yoy and 34% qoq to Rmb2.1b, while cash inflow from sales of goods and services rose 3% yoy to Rmb45.1b.
- Maintain HOLD; raise target price by 13% to Rmb1,458.00.
Analysis
3Q26 results in line. Kweichow Moutai (Moutai) reported 9M26 revenue of Rmb133,284m (+2% yoy). Gross profit (operational) was Rmb117,325m (flat yoy), and operational gross margin was 89.6% (-1.7ppt yoy). EBIT totalled Rmb88,430m (flat yoy), and EBIT margin was 66.3% (-1.5ppt yoy). Net profit was Rmb64,467m (flat yoy), and net margin was 48.4% (-1.0ppt yoy). Core net profit was Rmb64,325m (-1% yoy), and core net margin was 48.3% (-1.1ppt yoy).
HOLD (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Previous TP :
Rmb1,392.05
Rmb1,458.00
+4.7%
Rmb1,295.00
Analyst
Analyst
IMPORTANT NOTICE - DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS
This report is provided subject to, and must be read together with, the full Disclosures / Disclaimers available at this link, which are incorporated by reference into this report. In particular, this report is intended for general circulation and informational purposes only and does not constitute personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment product or security. You should independently evaluate the information and, where necessary, seek advice from a qualified financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment. Analyst certifications required under applicable regulations, including SEC Regulation AC (where relevant), are included in this report. By accessing, receiving or using this report, you acknowledge that you have read, understood and agreed to be bound by the Disclosures / Disclaimers, as may be amended, supplemented or updated from time to time.
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