Top Stories
Economics | BI Holds Rate At 5.75% Amid Capital Inflows, Signals Resumption Of Tightening Amid Geopolitical Risks
BI held the BI rate at 5.75% in Jul 26, pausing its tightening cycle amid capital inflows and rupiah strength. It raised KLM to 6.0% of DPK (Rp50t-53t) and increased swap discounts for foreign investors, though banks favour SRBI and SBN over credit. Persistent Middle East conflicts and high oil prices pose risks. We expect BI to raise the rate by 50bp in 2H26 and 25bp in 2027 to 6.50%, flattening the yield curve and creating buying opportunities in short-/medium-tenor bonds.
Small/Mid Cap Highlights | Timah (TINS IJ/NOT RATED/Rp3,620)
TINS targets 2026 tin sales of 20,000-24,000 tonnes, implying 20-44% growth, supported by stronger production and tin prices. Near-term risks include RKAB revision uncertainty and delayed seized-asset injections. While 2Q26 volumes softened due to maintenance, higher tin prices should support earnings. In the longer term, rare earth monetisation and potentially higher tin sales volume offer attractive optionality, with a potential contribution from 2H27.
Technical Analysis
Pertamina Geothermal Energy | PGEO IJ
Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp1,025, and take profit at Rp1,085.
Elnusa | ELSA IJ
Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp685, and take profit at Rp725.
Top Stories
Economics | BI Holds Rate At 5.75% Amid Capital Inflows, Signals Resumption Of Tightening Amid Geopolitical Risks
BI held the BI rate at 5.75% in Jul 26, pausing its tightening cycle amid capital inflows and rupiah strength. It raised KLM to 6.0% of DPK (Rp50t-53t) and increased swap discounts for foreign investors, though banks favour SRBI and SBN over credit. Persistent Middle East conflicts and high oil prices pose risks. We expect BI to raise the rate by 50bp in 2H26 and 25bp in 2027 to 6.50%, flattening the yield curve and creating buying opportunities in short-/medium-tenor bonds.
Small/Mid Cap Highlights | Timah (TINS IJ/NOT RATED/Rp3,620)
TINS targets 2026 tin sales of 20,000-24,000 tonnes, implying 20-44% growth, supported by stronger production and tin prices. Near-term risks include RKAB revision uncertainty and delayed seized-asset injections. While 2Q26 volumes softened due to maintenance, higher tin prices should support earnings. In the longer term, rare earth monetisation and potentially higher tin sales volume offer attractive optionality, with a potential contribution from 2H27.
Technical Analysis
Pertamina Geothermal Energy | PGEO IJ
Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp1,025, and take profit at Rp1,085.
Elnusa | ELSA IJ
Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp685, and take profit at Rp725.
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