Analyst
Key Indices
Top Stories
Economics | Economic Activity
China’s 3Q26 GDP growth rose to 4.5% yoy, above consensus of 4.4%, bringing 9M26 growth to 4.6% yoy. September’s data was mixed. Retail sales growth rebounded to 1.1% yoy, above consensus of 0.5%, and industrial production grew 5.5% yoy. However, FAI fell 7.2% ytd yoy, dragged by property FAI, which deepened to -20.6% ytd yoy, below expectations. Unemployment improved to 5.2%. With ytd GDP growth at 4.6% and low base for comparison, we raise 2026 GDP forecast to 4.5% yoy.
Sector Update | China Property
NBS data showed new-home GFA sold down 22.6% yoy in Sep 26, the steepest monthly decline in 2026, while second-hand transaction GFA rose 10.7% yoy in 9M26 to 1.3x residential new-home GFA sold. In Sep 26, Tier 1 new-home and second-hand prices rose 0.1%/0.2% mom. Household medium- to long-term loans rose Rmb87.4b in Sep 26, 65% lower than last year’s. Over 1-18 Oct 26, Tier 1 new-home and second-hand sales rose 8%/30% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s property sector.
Top Stories
Economics | Economic Activity
China’s 3Q26 GDP growth rose to 4.5% yoy, above consensus of 4.4%, bringing 9M26 growth to 4.6% yoy. September’s data was mixed. Retail sales growth rebounded to 1.1% yoy, above consensus of 0.5%, and industrial production grew 5.5% yoy. However, FAI fell 7.2% ytd yoy, dragged by property FAI, which deepened to -20.6% ytd yoy, below expectations. Unemployment improved to 5.2%. With ytd GDP growth at 4.6% and low base for comparison, we raise 2026 GDP forecast to 4.5% yoy.
Sector Update | China Property
NBS data showed new-home GFA sold down 22.6% yoy in Sep 26, the steepest monthly decline in 2026, while second-hand transaction GFA rose 10.7% yoy in 9M26 to 1.3x residential new-home GFA sold. In Sep 26, Tier 1 new-home and second-hand prices rose 0.1%/0.2% mom. Household medium- to long-term loans rose Rmb87.4b in Sep 26, 65% lower than last year’s. Over 1-18 Oct 26, Tier 1 new-home and second-hand sales rose 8%/30% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s property sector.
Analyst
Key Indices
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