Company Coverage
Thaifoods Group (TFG TB): 2Q26 Results Preview: Retail Margin Remains Resilient Despite Lower Livestock Prices
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Bt10.00
Bt12.40
24.00%
Analyst
Highlights
- We expect TFG to report a core profit of Bt1,381m for 2Q26 (-46.6% yoy, -26.9% qoq).
- The overall margin in 2Q26 was pressured qoq and yoy by lower ASPs livestock, while retail margin remained resilient.
- The positive 2H26 outlook is supported by upcycles livestock prices and TFG’s continued retail store expansion. Maintain BUY with a target price of
Bt12.40.
Analysis
- 2Q26 earnings to drop yoy and qoq. We expect Thaifoods Group (TFG) to report a core profit of Bt1,381m for 2Q26 (-46.6% yoy, -26.9% qoq). The yoy decline was due to a high base in 2Q25, while the qoq decline was driven by lower gross margins amid weaker livestock prices in both Thailand and Vietnam, as well as higher corn costs.
- Overall margin under pressure, while retail margin remains resilient. We forecast 2Q26 gross margin at 18.2%, down from 24.0% in 2Q25 and 21.7% in 1Q26. The yoy decline can be primarily attributable to a high base, as livestock prices were elevated during 1H25 following the ASF outbreak. The qoq contraction is expected to be driven by lower livestock ASPs in both the Thai and Vietnamese markets. However, we expect the retail business’ gross margin to remain stable qoq and yoy at 14.5%, supported by higher sales volumes of processed livestock products through its retail store network.
Highlights
- We expect TFG to report a core profit of Bt1,381m for 2Q26 (-46.6% yoy, -26.9% qoq).
- The overall margin in 2Q26 was pressured qoq and yoy by lower ASPs livestock, while retail margin remained resilient.
- The positive 2H26 outlook is supported by upcycles livestock prices and TFG’s continued retail store expansion. Maintain BUY with a target price of
Bt12.40.
Analysis
- 2Q26 earnings to drop yoy and qoq. We expect Thaifoods Group (TFG) to report a core profit of Bt1,381m for 2Q26 (-46.6% yoy, -26.9% qoq). The yoy decline was due to a high base in 2Q25, while the qoq decline was driven by lower gross margins amid weaker livestock prices in both Thailand and Vietnam, as well as higher corn costs.
- Overall margin under pressure, while retail margin remains resilient. We forecast 2Q26 gross margin at 18.2%, down from 24.0% in 2Q25 and 21.7% in 1Q26. The yoy decline can be primarily attributable to a high base, as livestock prices were elevated during 1H25 following the ASF outbreak. The qoq contraction is expected to be driven by lower livestock ASPs in both the Thai and Vietnamese markets. However, we expect the retail business’ gross margin to remain stable qoq and yoy at 14.5%, supported by higher sales volumes of processed livestock products through its retail store network.
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Bt10.00
Bt12.40
24.00%
Analyst
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