Company Coverage
PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC TB): 2Q26 Net Profit Expected To Improve qoq And yoy
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Bt37.50
Bt46.00
+22.67%
Analyst
Analyst
Highlights
- We forecast 2Q26 net profit at Bt9.0b, up 179% qoq, driven by a significant improvement in the olefins business.
- The impact from the second round of diesel ex-refinery price cuts is expected to be relatively limited in 3Q26.
- Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt46.00.
Analysis
- Expect 2Q26 net profit to improve. We forecast PTT Global Chemical’s (PTTGC) 2Q26 net profit at Bt9.0b, up 179% qoq and turning around from a net loss in 2Q25. The strong earnings recovery is mainly driven by a significant improvement in the olefins and polymers businesses, supported by stronger product prices and margins.
- Strong HDPE prices and spreads. We expect EBITDA from the olefins and polymer segments to increase both qoq and yoy, driven by price and spread of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) rising 36% qoq and 62% qoq respectively. In addition, sales volume should recover qoq following the restart of the OLE4 cracker after the scheduled maintenance in 1Q26, resulting in higher operating rates of 95% and 110% for olefins and polymers respectively.
- BTX spread remains supportive. The aromatics business is expected to improve qoq, supported by a recovery in by-product spreads, particularly condensate residue (accounting for approximately 20% of total production). This should more than offset the decline in paraxylene spread, which was pressured by higher condensate costs following the rise in crude oil prices. We estimate benzene toluene–xylene (BTX) spread at US$306/tonne in 2Q26, up 11% qoq. With the operating rate improving to 90% (vs 87% in 1Q26), we expect aromatics EBITDA to reach Bt2.0b, up 26% qoq.
Highlights
- We forecast 2Q26 net profit at Bt9.0b, up 179% qoq, driven by a significant improvement in the olefins business.
- The impact from the second round of diesel ex-refinery price cuts is expected to be relatively limited in 3Q26.
- Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt46.00.
Analysis
- Expect 2Q26 net profit to improve. We forecast PTT Global Chemical’s (PTTGC) 2Q26 net profit at Bt9.0b, up 179% qoq and turning around from a net loss in 2Q25. The strong earnings recovery is mainly driven by a significant improvement in the olefins and polymers businesses, supported by stronger product prices and margins.
- Strong HDPE prices and spreads. We expect EBITDA from the olefins and polymer segments to increase both qoq and yoy, driven by price and spread of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) rising 36% qoq and 62% qoq respectively. In addition, sales volume should recover qoq following the restart of the OLE4 cracker after the scheduled maintenance in 1Q26, resulting in higher operating rates of 95% and 110% for olefins and polymers respectively.
- BTX spread remains supportive. The aromatics business is expected to improve qoq, supported by a recovery in by-product spreads, particularly condensate residue (accounting for approximately 20% of total production). This should more than offset the decline in paraxylene spread, which was pressured by higher condensate costs following the rise in crude oil prices. We estimate benzene toluene–xylene (BTX) spread at US$306/tonne in 2Q26, up 11% qoq. With the operating rate improving to 90% (vs 87% in 1Q26), we expect aromatics EBITDA to reach Bt2.0b, up 26% qoq.
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Bt37.50
Bt46.00
+22.67%
Analyst
Analyst
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