Company Coverage
PTT (PTT TB) - TOP: CFP Confidence Builds, With PTT Tank Poised To Unlock Long-Term Recurring Income
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Bt42.00
Bt45.00
+7.14%
Analyst
Analyst
Highlights
- TOP’s management remains highly confident that the CFP Project will be completed on schedule and strictly within the allocated CAPEX budget.
- PTT Tank serves as PTT Group’s core infrastructure flagship, focusing on risk diversification and securing long-term recurring income.
- We estimate the interim dividend payout at Bt1.10/share. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt45.00.
Analysis
- We maintain a positive view following our Clean Fuel Project (CFP) site visit for Thai Oil (TOP) and PTT Tank Terminal Company (PTT Tank).
- CFP is progressing as planned. TOP’s CFP is currently being executed under an Engineering, Procurement, and Construction Management (EPCM) structure, with cumulative progress reaching 34.87% as of end-Jul 26. TOP has established a systematic and strategic commissioning roadmap. The Crude Distillation Unit-4 (CDU-4) Complex is targeted for commercial operation date (COD) in 2Q27, while the Residue Hydrocracking Unit (RHCU) Complex and Energy Recovery Unit (ERU) will initially undergo utilities system testing. A key milestone is the completion of the first ERU boiler by end-27, followed by testing of supporting facilities, including the Hydrogen Manufacturing Unit (HMU) and Sulphur Recovery Unit (SRU). These units are expected to be ready for integrated commissioning in early-28, with the entire CFP targeted to achieve full COD in 3Q28 as planned.
- CFP to structurally improve TOP’s competitiveness. With a total investment of US$7.15b, TOP’s CFP is designed to upgrade and optimise its refinery to become a first-quartile performer. Upon completion, the project will increase total refining capacity by 40% to 400,000 barrel per day (BPD) and significantly enhance feedstock flexibility by enabling the refinery to process 45-70% medium and heavy crude, compared with its previous capability of primarily processing light crude. This should lower feedstock costs and materially improve operational flexibility. On the product side, the project will deliver significant value upgrading, eliminating low-value fuel oil production from 13% to 0% and shifting the product slate toward higher-value products, with middle distillates increasing to 62%.
- PTT Tank: PTT Group’s strategic infrastructure flagship. PTT Tank serves as a strategic infrastructure flagship and key infrastructure integrator for PTT Group, connecting energy and industrial assets across the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), particularly Map Ta Phut and Sriracha. Under its 3-S Strategic Direction, asset pooling with PTT Group affiliates such as TOP and PTT Global chemical (PTTGC) during 2026-27 is expected to unlock synergies and optimise asset utilisation.
Highlights
- TOP’s management remains highly confident that the CFP Project will be completed on schedule and strictly within the allocated CAPEX budget.
- PTT Tank serves as PTT Group’s core infrastructure flagship, focusing on risk diversification and securing long-term recurring income.
- We estimate the interim dividend payout at Bt1.10/share. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt45.00.
Analysis
- We maintain a positive view following our Clean Fuel Project (CFP) site visit for Thai Oil (TOP) and PTT Tank Terminal Company (PTT Tank).
- CFP is progressing as planned. TOP’s CFP is currently being executed under an Engineering, Procurement, and Construction Management (EPCM) structure, with cumulative progress reaching 34.87% as of end-Jul 26. TOP has established a systematic and strategic commissioning roadmap. The Crude Distillation Unit-4 (CDU-4) Complex is targeted for commercial operation date (COD) in 2Q27, while the Residue Hydrocracking Unit (RHCU) Complex and Energy Recovery Unit (ERU) will initially undergo utilities system testing. A key milestone is the completion of the first ERU boiler by end-27, followed by testing of supporting facilities, including the Hydrogen Manufacturing Unit (HMU) and Sulphur Recovery Unit (SRU). These units are expected to be ready for integrated commissioning in early-28, with the entire CFP targeted to achieve full COD in 3Q28 as planned.
- CFP to structurally improve TOP’s competitiveness. With a total investment of US$7.15b, TOP’s CFP is designed to upgrade and optimise its refinery to become a first-quartile performer. Upon completion, the project will increase total refining capacity by 40% to 400,000 barrel per day (BPD) and significantly enhance feedstock flexibility by enabling the refinery to process 45-70% medium and heavy crude, compared with its previous capability of primarily processing light crude. This should lower feedstock costs and materially improve operational flexibility. On the product side, the project will deliver significant value upgrading, eliminating low-value fuel oil production from 13% to 0% and shifting the product slate toward higher-value products, with middle distillates increasing to 62%.
- PTT Tank: PTT Group’s strategic infrastructure flagship. PTT Tank serves as a strategic infrastructure flagship and key infrastructure integrator for PTT Group, connecting energy and industrial assets across the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC), particularly Map Ta Phut and Sriracha. Under its 3-S Strategic Direction, asset pooling with PTT Group affiliates such as TOP and PTT Global chemical (PTTGC) during 2026-27 is expected to unlock synergies and optimise asset utilisation.
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Bt42.00
Bt45.00
+7.14%
Analyst
Analyst
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