Company Coverage
Central Pattana (CPN TB): Earnings Momentum To Continue; New Assets To Drive 2H26 Growth
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Bt67.75
Bt80.00
18.52%
Analyst
Highlights
Slightly positive tone from the analyst meeting.
Foot traffic improved in July, which should support healthy performance in 3Q26. Moreover, we believe CPN’s performance is likely to exceed management’s targets.
The transfer of assets into CPNREIT has been postponed to mid-27.
Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt80.00, based on SOTP methodology.
Analysis
Takeaways from analyst meeting. We attended Central Pattana’s (CPN) analyst meeting and came away with a more positive view on CPN’s outlook.
Foot traffic improved in Jul 26. July traffic accelerated to +3-4% yoy (vs +1-3% yoy in 2Q26), driven by strong growth in tourist-zone shopping malls and long holidays in late-July. This should support positive tenant sales momentum in 3Q26.
Performance is likely to beat management’s target. Management maintains its rental revenue growth target of 8-9% yoy, with 1H26 performance remaining on track. For the hotel and residential businesses, the target remains flat yoy, although there is potential upside given their strong 1H26 performance.
Asset transfers to CPNREIT have been postponed to mid-27, with further progress expected by late-26. While there will be no asset divestment in the near term, we have no concerns over CPN’s liquidity given its strong balance sheet, with net debt-to-equity at just 0.4x.
Essential
Promising outlook for 2H26, Earnings should be supported by the ramp-up of newly opened assets and continued growth from existing malls. Key catalysts include the ongoing ramp-up of Central Park and Central Krabi, as well as the upcoming openings of Central Northville and new hotel projects. We are confident that management’s target of 5-8% yoy growth in rental and service income in 2026 is achievable, while occupancy should remain at healthy levels. We also expect operating leverage from mature assets to partly offset the initial margin dilution from new projects. Overall, strong 2Q26 rental performance, healthy occupancy and an expanding asset base should support continued earnings growth in 2H26.
Highlights
Slightly positive tone from the analyst meeting.
Foot traffic improved in July, which should support healthy performance in 3Q26. Moreover, we believe CPN’s performance is likely to exceed management’s targets.
The transfer of assets into CPNREIT has been postponed to mid-27.
Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt80.00, based on SOTP methodology.
Analysis
Takeaways from analyst meeting. We attended Central Pattana’s (CPN) analyst meeting and came away with a more positive view on CPN’s outlook.
Foot traffic improved in Jul 26. July traffic accelerated to +3-4% yoy (vs +1-3% yoy in 2Q26), driven by strong growth in tourist-zone shopping malls and long holidays in late-July. This should support positive tenant sales momentum in 3Q26.
Performance is likely to beat management’s target. Management maintains its rental revenue growth target of 8-9% yoy, with 1H26 performance remaining on track. For the hotel and residential businesses, the target remains flat yoy, although there is potential upside given their strong 1H26 performance.
Asset transfers to CPNREIT have been postponed to mid-27, with further progress expected by late-26. While there will be no asset divestment in the near term, we have no concerns over CPN’s liquidity given its strong balance sheet, with net debt-to-equity at just 0.4x.
Essential
Promising outlook for 2H26, Earnings should be supported by the ramp-up of newly opened assets and continued growth from existing malls. Key catalysts include the ongoing ramp-up of Central Park and Central Krabi, as well as the upcoming openings of Central Northville and new hotel projects. We are confident that management’s target of 5-8% yoy growth in rental and service income in 2026 is achievable, while occupancy should remain at healthy levels. We also expect operating leverage from mature assets to partly offset the initial margin dilution from new projects. Overall, strong 2Q26 rental performance, healthy occupancy and an expanding asset base should support continued earnings growth in 2H26.
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Bt67.75
Bt80.00
18.52%
Analyst
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