Company Coverage
Matrix Concepts Holdings (MCH MK): 1QFY27 Results Preview: Largely On Track With Decent Yield Of 5.8%
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
RM1.24
RM1.72
+38.7%
Analyst
Highlights
- We expect Matrix’s 1QFY27 results to come in flattish yoy at RM60m-65m. Its sales should normalise from the earlier disruption of e-SPA implementation to reach RM400m, accounting for around 22% of its full-year sales target.
- Valuation has eased by 11% ytd to 0.93x P/B on a 12-month forward basis, and currently offers a decent dividend yield of 5.8% for FY27.
- Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of RM1.72.
Analysis
- 1QFY27 results preview. We expect Matrix Concepts Holdings (Matrix) to report 1QFY27 core earnings of RM60m-65m, broadly stable yoy against RM63m in 1QFY26 and accounting for 23-25% of our full-year forecast. We believe near-term earnings could be capped by slower progress billing due to a full quarter’s impact of higher diesel costs, while revenue recognition from industrial sales is likely to be backloaded.
- Sales to normalise from earlier disruption caused by e-SPA implementation. The impact of the compulsory electronic sale and purchase agreement (e-SPA) implementation from 1 Jan 26 has largely normalised, with monthly residential SPAs recovering from RM90m in Jan 26 to RM120m-130m in 1QFY27 (Apr-Jun 26). Meanwhile, the proposed RM33m land sale to Golog Holdings remains subject to the fulfilment of conditions precedent. Industrial sales at MVV Tech Valley have reached RM90m in FY27 to date, implying a take-up rate of 75%, up from 65% as of end-Mar 26. Overall, we estimate 1QFY27 sales at around RM400m, representing 22% of its RM1.8b full-year sales target and broadly on track. Sales should pick up in 2HFY27, as it launches the first block of Levia Residence @ Puchong that has a GDV of RM356m.
- FY27 set for strong double-digit earnings growth. We forecast Matrix’s FY27 earnings to grow by 20.4% yoy, supported by: a) the progressive conversion of its enlarged unbilled sales backlog following the normalisation of e-SPA signings, and b) a stronger contribution from high-margin industrial projects. We expect industrial revenue recognition to rise to around RM270m in FY27 from RM68m in FY26. Assuming a 25% net margin, the segment could contribute RM67.5m, equivalent to 26% of our FY27 earnings forecast.
Highlights
- We expect Matrix’s 1QFY27 results to come in flattish yoy at RM60m-65m. Its sales should normalise from the earlier disruption of e-SPA implementation to reach RM400m, accounting for around 22% of its full-year sales target.
- Valuation has eased by 11% ytd to 0.93x P/B on a 12-month forward basis, and currently offers a decent dividend yield of 5.8% for FY27.
- Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of RM1.72.
Analysis
- 1QFY27 results preview. We expect Matrix Concepts Holdings (Matrix) to report 1QFY27 core earnings of RM60m-65m, broadly stable yoy against RM63m in 1QFY26 and accounting for 23-25% of our full-year forecast. We believe near-term earnings could be capped by slower progress billing due to a full quarter’s impact of higher diesel costs, while revenue recognition from industrial sales is likely to be backloaded.
- Sales to normalise from earlier disruption caused by e-SPA implementation. The impact of the compulsory electronic sale and purchase agreement (e-SPA) implementation from 1 Jan 26 has largely normalised, with monthly residential SPAs recovering from RM90m in Jan 26 to RM120m-130m in 1QFY27 (Apr-Jun 26). Meanwhile, the proposed RM33m land sale to Golog Holdings remains subject to the fulfilment of conditions precedent. Industrial sales at MVV Tech Valley have reached RM90m in FY27 to date, implying a take-up rate of 75%, up from 65% as of end-Mar 26. Overall, we estimate 1QFY27 sales at around RM400m, representing 22% of its RM1.8b full-year sales target and broadly on track. Sales should pick up in 2HFY27, as it launches the first block of Levia Residence @ Puchong that has a GDV of RM356m.
- FY27 set for strong double-digit earnings growth. We forecast Matrix’s FY27 earnings to grow by 20.4% yoy, supported by: a) the progressive conversion of its enlarged unbilled sales backlog following the normalisation of e-SPA signings, and b) a stronger contribution from high-margin industrial projects. We expect industrial revenue recognition to rise to around RM270m in FY27 from RM68m in FY26. Assuming a 25% net margin, the segment could contribute RM67.5m, equivalent to 26% of our FY27 earnings forecast.
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
RM1.24
RM1.72
+38.7%
Analyst
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