Company Coverage
Indosat (ISAT IJ): 2Q26: ARPU Momentum Continues Amid Higher Investment
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Previous TP :
Rp1,925
Rp2,500
+29.8%
Rp2,700
Analyst
Analyst
Highlights
- ARPU growth supports earnings in line with expectations. ISAT continued raising mobile ARPU to Rp46,000 while maintaining a stable 93.4m subscriber base, supporting monetisation and prompting management to upgrade its 2026 revenue and EBITDA growth guidance to high single-digit.
- AI investment and 5G rollout increase capex needs. ISAT secured Rp5.4t of annual contracted GPU revenue over the next five years, while FiberCo proceeds will fund accelerated 5G deployment and higher capex, with management maintaining its 70% dividend payout target.
We maintain BUY with a lower target price of Rp2,500 based on historical five year average EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.6x.
Analysis
- ARPU-driven growth continued. Indosat (ISAT) lifted blended mobile Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) by 1.7% qoq to Rp46,000 in 2Q26, extending its steady pricing improvement from Rp44,000 in 4Q25. Subscriber numbers remained resilient at 93.4m (-0.1% qoq), demonstrating the company's ability to improve monetisation without sacrificing its customer base. EBITDA increased 25% qoq, supported by a Rp1.5t gain from the FiberCo sale. Excluding one-off items, adjusted net profit reached 47% of our FY26 forecast and 54% of consensus. Reflecting stronger operating momentum, management upgraded its 2026 revenue and EBITDA growth guidance from mid- to high single-digit to high single-digit.
Highlights
- ARPU growth supports earnings in line with expectations. ISAT continued raising mobile ARPU to Rp46,000 while maintaining a stable 93.4m subscriber base, supporting monetisation and prompting management to upgrade its 2026 revenue and EBITDA growth guidance to high single-digit.
- AI investment and 5G rollout increase capex needs. ISAT secured Rp5.4t of annual contracted GPU revenue over the next five years, while FiberCo proceeds will fund accelerated 5G deployment and higher capex, with management maintaining its 70% dividend payout target.
We maintain BUY with a lower target price of Rp2,500 based on historical five year average EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.6x.
Analysis
- ARPU-driven growth continued. Indosat (ISAT) lifted blended mobile Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) by 1.7% qoq to Rp46,000 in 2Q26, extending its steady pricing improvement from Rp44,000 in 4Q25. Subscriber numbers remained resilient at 93.4m (-0.1% qoq), demonstrating the company's ability to improve monetisation without sacrificing its customer base. EBITDA increased 25% qoq, supported by a Rp1.5t gain from the FiberCo sale. Excluding one-off items, adjusted net profit reached 47% of our FY26 forecast and 54% of consensus. Reflecting stronger operating momentum, management upgraded its 2026 revenue and EBITDA growth guidance from mid- to high single-digit to high single-digit.
BUY (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Previous TP :
Rp1,925
Rp2,500
+29.8%
Rp2,700
Analyst
Analyst
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