NOT RATED
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Rp3,620
N.A.
N.A.
Analyst
Analyst
Highlights
- TINS targets 2026 tin sales of 20,000-24,000 tonnes, implying 20-44% growth, supported by stronger production and tin prices.
- While 2Q26 volumes softened due to maintenance, higher tin prices should support earnings.
- In the longer term, rare earth monetisation and potential higher tin sales volume offer attractive optionality, with potential contribution from 2H27.
Analysis
- 2026 guidance signals a meaningful production growth. Management remains constructive on 2026, targeting tin sales of 20,000-24,000 tonnes, with an upside scenario of around 24,000 tonnes. Compared with 2025 sales of 16,634 tonnes, this implies volume growth of 20-44%. The recovery is supported by a strong start to the year, with 1Q26 tin ore production nearly doubling yoy to 6,312 tonnes as permitting issues and ore-supply constraints that weighed on 2025 operations gradually eased. Coupled with a stronger tin price environment, consensus expects 2026 net profit to reach Rp3.7t (+180% yoy).
- 2Q26: Maintenance-led volume softness, but earnings remain supported by stronger tin prices. Following a 1Q26 production run-rate of around 2,000 tonnes/month, management expects 2Q26 output to decline by 10-20% qoq to 1,700-1,800 tonnes/month, mainly due to a scheduled smelter maintenance in May. Nevertheless, tin prices averaged US$51,800/tonne in 2Q26 (+2.7% qoq), which should help offset lower sales volumes and support another solid quarter of financial performance.
- RKAB revision is the key near-term uncertainty. Timah (TINS) is revising its 2026 RKAB (mining work plan and budget), which was initially set at 30,000 tonnes. Management has not disclosed the revised figure, and it could be revised upward or downward. Export activity is delayed to the next quarter until the RKAB is finalised, hence, TINS expects sales momentum to slow again in 3Q26.
- Rare earth minerals are the next catalyst. Management indicates that rare earth margins could exceed tin margins if the business can be monetised. R&D progress has been encouraging, TINS has already been able to extract around 90% of usable components, and management estimates that roughly 5% of the tin ore it produces consists of rare earth material. The earliest revenue contribution is expected in 2H27.
Highlights
- TINS targets 2026 tin sales of 20,000-24,000 tonnes, implying 20-44% growth, supported by stronger production and tin prices.
- While 2Q26 volumes softened due to maintenance, higher tin prices should support earnings.
- In the longer term, rare earth monetisation and potential higher tin sales volume offer attractive optionality, with potential contribution from 2H27.
Analysis
- 2026 guidance signals a meaningful production growth. Management remains constructive on 2026, targeting tin sales of 20,000-24,000 tonnes, with an upside scenario of around 24,000 tonnes. Compared with 2025 sales of 16,634 tonnes, this implies volume growth of 20-44%. The recovery is supported by a strong start to the year, with 1Q26 tin ore production nearly doubling yoy to 6,312 tonnes as permitting issues and ore-supply constraints that weighed on 2025 operations gradually eased. Coupled with a stronger tin price environment, consensus expects 2026 net profit to reach Rp3.7t (+180% yoy).
- 2Q26: Maintenance-led volume softness, but earnings remain supported by stronger tin prices. Following a 1Q26 production run-rate of around 2,000 tonnes/month, management expects 2Q26 output to decline by 10-20% qoq to 1,700-1,800 tonnes/month, mainly due to a scheduled smelter maintenance in May. Nevertheless, tin prices averaged US$51,800/tonne in 2Q26 (+2.7% qoq), which should help offset lower sales volumes and support another solid quarter of financial performance.
- RKAB revision is the key near-term uncertainty. Timah (TINS) is revising its 2026 RKAB (mining work plan and budget), which was initially set at 30,000 tonnes. Management has not disclosed the revised figure, and it could be revised upward or downward. Export activity is delayed to the next quarter until the RKAB is finalised, hence, TINS expects sales momentum to slow again in 3Q26.
- Rare earth minerals are the next catalyst. Management indicates that rare earth margins could exceed tin margins if the business can be monetised. R&D progress has been encouraging, TINS has already been able to extract around 90% of usable components, and management estimates that roughly 5% of the tin ore it produces consists of rare earth material. The earliest revenue contribution is expected in 2H27.
NOT RATED
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Rp3,620
N.A.
N.A.
Analyst
Analyst
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