Periodic/Sector reports
Macau Gaming: Aug 26’s GGR Misses Consensus By 2%
OVERWEIGHT (Maintained)
Analyst
Analyst
Highlights
- Macau’s Aug 26 GGR reached MOP21.9b, down 1% yoy but up 8% mom, as July was impacted by the FIFA World Cup. August’s GGR figure missed market consensus by 2%, and recovered to 90% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Jul 26). For 8M26, GGR rose by 4% yoy to MOP169.1b.
- Macau’s July visitation reached 3.5m, up 2% yoy and 26% mom, broadly in line with 2019’s level. For 7M26, cumulative visitation increased 8% yoy to 24.5m, up 3% vs 2019’s level.
- Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick.
Analysis
- Aug 26’s GGR missed market consensus by 2%. According to DICJ, Macau’s Aug 26 gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached MOP21.9b, down 1% yoy but up 8% mom, as July was impacted by the FIFA World Cup. August’s GGR figure missed market consensus by 2%, and recovered to 90% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in July 26). For 8M26, GGR rose by 4% yoy to MOP169.1b.
- Macau’s July visitation up 2% yoy and flat vs 2019. According to the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC), in Jul 26, Macau’s total visitation reached 3.5m, up 2% yoy and 26% mom, broadly in line with 2019’s level. Of this 3.5m, Mainland Chinese visitors accounted for 2.7m, up 5% yoy and 39% mom, while same-day visitors totalled 2.1m, up 6% yoy and 29% mom. The average length of stay for visitors remained unchanged mom at 1.7 days. For 7M26, cumulative visitation increased 8% yoy to 24.5m, up 3% vs 2019’s level, with growth driven by same-day visitors, which jumped 14% yoy, while overnight visitors remained flat yoy.
- Hotel occupancy rates increased mom in Jul 26. According to DSEC, hotel occupancy rates increased to 91.6% in Jul 26 from 85.8% in Jun 26.
Valuation/Recommendation
- Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. We prefer Galaxy, for its ability to capture incremental high-end demand amid a premium-growing GGR trend. We maintain Galaxy’s target price at HK$47.00, based on a 12.0x target 2026 EV/EBITDA ratio. The stock currently trades at 7.7x 2026 EV/EBITDA and 7.3x 2027 EV/EBITDA.
Highlights
- Macau’s Aug 26 GGR reached MOP21.9b, down 1% yoy but up 8% mom, as July was impacted by the FIFA World Cup. August’s GGR figure missed market consensus by 2%, and recovered to 90% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Jul 26). For 8M26, GGR rose by 4% yoy to MOP169.1b.
- Macau’s July visitation reached 3.5m, up 2% yoy and 26% mom, broadly in line with 2019’s level. For 7M26, cumulative visitation increased 8% yoy to 24.5m, up 3% vs 2019’s level.
- Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick.
Analysis
- Aug 26’s GGR missed market consensus by 2%. According to DICJ, Macau’s Aug 26 gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached MOP21.9b, down 1% yoy but up 8% mom, as July was impacted by the FIFA World Cup. August’s GGR figure missed market consensus by 2%, and recovered to 90% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in July 26). For 8M26, GGR rose by 4% yoy to MOP169.1b.
- Macau’s July visitation up 2% yoy and flat vs 2019. According to the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC), in Jul 26, Macau’s total visitation reached 3.5m, up 2% yoy and 26% mom, broadly in line with 2019’s level. Of this 3.5m, Mainland Chinese visitors accounted for 2.7m, up 5% yoy and 39% mom, while same-day visitors totalled 2.1m, up 6% yoy and 29% mom. The average length of stay for visitors remained unchanged mom at 1.7 days. For 7M26, cumulative visitation increased 8% yoy to 24.5m, up 3% vs 2019’s level, with growth driven by same-day visitors, which jumped 14% yoy, while overnight visitors remained flat yoy.
- Hotel occupancy rates increased mom in Jul 26. According to DSEC, hotel occupancy rates increased to 91.6% in Jul 26 from 85.8% in Jun 26.
Valuation/Recommendation
- Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. We prefer Galaxy, for its ability to capture incremental high-end demand amid a premium-growing GGR trend. We maintain Galaxy’s target price at HK$47.00, based on a 12.0x target 2026 EV/EBITDA ratio. The stock currently trades at 7.7x 2026 EV/EBITDA and 7.3x 2027 EV/EBITDA.
OVERWEIGHT (Maintained)
Analyst
Analyst
IMPORTANT NOTICE - DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS
This report is provided subject to, and must be read together with, the full Disclosures / Disclaimers available at this link, which are incorporated by reference into this report. In particular, this report is intended for general circulation and informational purposes only and does not constitute personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment product or security. You should independently evaluate the information and, where necessary, seek advice from a qualified financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment. Analyst certifications required under applicable regulations, including SEC Regulation AC (where relevant), are included in this report. By accessing, receiving or using this report, you acknowledge that you have read, understood and agreed to be bound by the Disclosures / Disclaimers, as may be amended, supplemented or updated from time to time.
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